KeenanParkerWomack
The Big 12, despite its problems, has always had teams in the mix for the national title, even though really it comes down to Texas and Oklahoma (and for the last decade, it’s really just been Oklahoma).
But this season, Iowa State as well as TCU look to return very strong defenses to the conference, and the two traditional powers listed before look to be in strong shape as well. This year, the battle for the Big 12 will be an interesting one. There’s a very good chance that nobody comes out of the conference undefeated, and the conference may very well miss an opportunity to represent itself in the College Football Playoff.
Either way, it will be a fascinating race to be sure. The consensus conference favorite, Oklahoma, loses a ton on offense with the loss of Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown and four offensive linemen, but returns most of its defense and talented wideout Ceedee Lamb, as well as reloading with grad transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts (via Alabama).
Texas brings back Sam Ehlinger, their clear-cut team leader and best player on the offense. It’s nice to watch a great quarterback again, let me tell you. I was tired of quarterbacks that, you know, had trouble passing the ball. Generally that’s an important skill when you’re under center, but the ‘Horns had so many recruiting debacles when going after passers that it’s a wonder they even ended up with Ehlinger in the first place.
SEPTEMBER 7: LSU @ TEXAS
I went to an LSU game, in which they played hated rival Alabama, when I was a freshman in college. Loud as hell in that stadium.
After the game (they lost), I watched some Tigers fans jump an Alabama fan, to which I responded by doing what any Good Samaritan would do: yelling “WorldStar!” as loud as I could while filming it.
Though it’s an out-of-conference game, Texas’ September 7th matchup against the LSU Tigers can’t be ignored. LSU comes into Austin ready to prove that Texas’ win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was a fluke, and that the SEC is truly the superior conference to the Big 12.
Joe Burrow vs. Sam Ehlinger will be the matchup to watch. Ehlinger had a spectacular sophomore season in which he scored 41 TDs on nearly 65% completion and only five interceptions. Burrow accounted for 23 TDs and only five interceptions as well.
As of right now, LSU is an eight-point favorite, which is probably fair, considering the amount of players that LSU brings back and the amount of defensive players that Texas loses. This may be true, but that doesn’t mean that Texas will lose this game at home. Tom Herman’s teams thrive in games in which they’re underdogs, as he has proven both at Texas as well as at Houston.
Predicted score: Texas 31, LSU 24
OCTOBER 5: TCU @ IOWA STATE
This is a matchup that will be a defensive struggle for the most part. The second-place finishers in the Big 12 in total defense last season, Iowa State returns eight starters, including multiple players who have the potential be all-conference talents, such as defensive linemen JaQuan Bailey and Ray Lima, linebackers Marcel Spears and Mike Rose, and safety Greg Eisworth. Have no doubts, this is going to be a tough team to score points against.
TCU, whose defense finished first in conference last season, returns six starters. The problem with TCU is we don’t exactly know who will be starting as signal-caller for them in October. It could be dual-threat redshirt freshman Justin Rodgers, or it could be Kansas State transfer Alex Delton.
I predict that whoever is playing quarterback for the Horned Frogs is going to have a tough day against this Iowa State defense, which, if it hadn’t been playing in the pass-happy Big 12, would probably have been rated much higher nationally than it was (they finished 34th in total yards given up per game). Touchdowns against Iowa State are harder to come by than writing jobs that pay a living wage.
I think Iowa State takes this one home, but I think the score is close.
Predicted outcome: Iowa state 24, TCU 17
OCTOBER 12: TEXAS @ OKLAHOMA
This is my favorite rivalry in sports. I still (kind of) remember going to this game with a date my first year of college, who probably would have liked to have been literally anywhere else. Because some amount of alcohol may have been consumed, I tried to bribe my way into the game, to which they replied, “We’re calling the police.”
Once I finally got into the game, I, drunk in the way that only a 19-year-old can get, realized that I had dropped $200 on tickets for a game in which we were down five touchdowns (in the first half). But you bet your ass I stayed till the end of the game to sing The Eyes of Texas, because that’s what my dad taught me to do.
Never talked to my date ever again. Probably for the best.
Anyway, this classic matchup that nearly always determines the outcome of the Big 12 was made a sort of worthless game last year in that the result was erased by the Big 12 Championship battle, in which Oklahoma topped Texas 39-27. The earlier matchup favored Texas 48-45, as Kyler Murray took his first loss since middle school, and really acted like a mature adult about it. I guess pissing him off was a fun result of that game. Other than that, it didn’t really matter.
But we don’t know yet who will play for the Big 12 title, so this game is extremely important in determining who will lead the conference. This game means much more if Texas has topped LSU in their game earlier in the season. True Big 12 fans will root for this game to feature two undefeated squads, as the result would mean that much more.
The OU defense, though it was atrocious last year, still returns 10 starters. It all depends on if new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch can steal Christmas from Sam Ehlinger and Colin Johnson.
Predicted score: Oklahoma 31, Texas 24
NOVEMBER 9: IOWA STATE @ OKLAHOMA
As referenced earlier, Iowa State (and their confusing mascot) brings back most of a great defense, one that is good enough to launch the Cyclones into a Big 12 championship.
Combine this with the excellent coaching of Matt Campbell and you have a team that could shock some people in conference games. This game is no different. Though it’s on the road, and though it’s notoriously hard to win in Norman for any Big 12 team, Iowa State was able to do it two seasons ago with a much less talented squad.
While they do stand a chance, OU is still a more talented team offensively, especially with the departures of David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler from Iowa State. Despite this fact, if Brock Purdy can replicate his freshman season, or improve on it, Iowa State has a chance to steal this game on the road.
I don’t think they will, however. As I mentioned in the Texas/OU section, Oklahoma has a new defensive coordinator, whose presence I believe will be made immediately apparent. The talent is there, and so is the experience. I think he puts it together and stops the Iowa State offense, in spite of Purdy’s best efforts.
Predicted score: Oklahoma 31, Iowa State 20
NOVEMBER 16: IOWA STATE @ TEXAS
I don’t have any stories of debauchery involving Iowa State unfortunately, so I have to actually do my job and analyze this game. It’s amazing how distasteful stories fill up the text box.
This game used to be a completely one-sided series; Texas has a 14-2 lead all time, but everything changed when Iowa State shut out Texas on the road in Darrell K Royal, winning by a score of 24-0 in 2015.
It was pretty humbling, although getting our asses beat was a regular occurrence in the Charlie Strong era, so it wasn’t exactly surprising. Some nice, homemade Humble Pie. It was so embarrassing that I’m not going to embed the video. Instead, here’s Young Thug.
But this year, a loss to Iowa State would not be embarrassing at all–I project their finishing second in the conference this season. That defense that I’ve harped on so much is as talented as any defense in the country, save maybe Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan.
Predicted score: Iowa State 28, Texas 24
The Blog 12 Conference 